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Iraq Campaign
Andy Driscoll: The War                    Phil Steger: Reflection

A View from the Bridge

Many hundreds of activists have joined the Lake Street "Bridge Vigil in the last weeks. The Vigil is part of the activities of the Twin Cities Campaign to Lift Sanctions against Iraq and is in its fourth year. Wednesdays 4:30-5:30 pm (winter).

THE WAR Andy Driscoll

I wonder who is prepared to answer the question: if you're all damned into
believing that Iraq harbors and was always prepared to use "weapons of mass
destruction" (in quotes because we're dropping them ourselves now) - why
have none of our forces been hit with any of them anywhere in that entire
theatre of battle?

It's because they haven't had any for years ­ as truth-tellers have been trying to persuade us for many months now. The WMD case has all along been a ruse to extract a leader from his country without invitation and without provocation. And to get at that oil. Oil prices dropped after three days of fighting, despite several oil wells being set ablaze.

The interesting thing about this war is that it's already put the lie to any claim of Iraq threatening the security of this or any other country. Had there been any real threat, we would by now surely have encountered a far
more resistant and destructive force than anything they've unleashed so far.

No. None of it was true. Nothing Bush uttered about Iraq was true except that it is governed by a narcissistic menace, a threat to his own people, to be sure. But, in the wake of the war's early onset, the previous failure of
inspections to unearth the unprovable negatives leveled by the administration and the failure of a 12-year effort to force a rebellion, the United States stands in the eyes of the world a hated bully - all because the country we claimed had all those dangerous weapons has crumbled in front of our advancing columns with token resistance.

A bully who cannot lie enough to convince wiser nations to engage this peanut country which has not been a threat to anyone since its stupid march into Kuwait 12 years ago.

As we roll over women and children with our firepower, as we destroy an ancient city for no reason whatsoever, as we shift our national paradigm to aggressor nation, know this: nothing about what we're doing deserves an ounce of patriotism. It deserves only our shame for inflicting an unnecessary holocaust on an innocent people just to ferret out a man who has embarrassed us time and again, a man we once armed with the very weapons we claim he now hides - but strangely isn't even using to defend his life and people.

It will survive as the shame of the nation for the first half of this new century and we can only pray that a regime change in our own polity will restore our national dignity and alliances for a safer and secure planet
after the purge.

Peace Now. Andy Driscoll  Saint Paul

 THE REASON FOR WAR... John Maus

Would the US go to war over oil currencies? What would be the consequences of such a gamble? I got most of the information in this article from a long essay by W. Clark, Independent Media Center
John

Although completely suppressed by the U.S. media and government, the answer to the Iraq enigma is simple yet shocking--it is an oil currency war. The real reason for this upcoming war is this administration's goal of preventing further Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
momentum towards the euro as an oil transaction currency standard. However, in order to pre-empt OPEC, they need to gain geo-strategic control of Iraq along with its 2nd largest proven oil reserves.

Oil is the lifeblood of all modern industrialized economies. If you don't have oil you have to buy it. To buy it you usually have to have dollars and those dollars go to the oil exporting countries. Oil exporters invest those petrodollars straight back into the US economy at zero currency risk. So the US can carry on printing money - effectively IOUs - to fund tax cuts, increased military spending, and consumer spending on imports without fear of inflation or that these loans will be called in. US debts to the rest of the world total more than $2.7 trillion, equivalent to more than one quarter of GDP. To finance this debt, the US requires an inflow of around $2 billion per day from the rest of the world. Effectively, the normal standards of
economics have not applied to the US, because of the international role of the dollar. Some $3 trillion are in circulation around the world helping the US to run virtually permanent trade deficits.

The oil industry was born in Texas, and so developed in dollars. For a long time everything has worked smoothly. But now there is the euro. In October of 2000, when the euro was at its historic low of $.82, Iraq started selling its oil in euros. This was obviously a political statement against the US led sanctions but it has resulted in a windfall for Saddam as the euro has increased to over $1.09. Last year Javad Yarjani, a senior Iranian oil diplomat said: "it is quite possible that as bilateral trade increases between the Middle East and the European Union, it could be feasible to price oil in Euros." The majority of reserve funds in Iran's central bank have been shifted to euros for their oil currency.

The Federal Reserve's greatest nightmare is that OPEC will switch its international transactions from a dollar standard to a euro standard. The real reason the Bush administration wants a puppet government in Iraq--or more importantly, the reason why the corporate-military-industrial network conglomerate wants a puppet government in Iraq-- is so that it will revert back to a dollar standard and stay that way. It is quite conceivable that President Bush intends to topple Saddam Hussein in a pre-emptive attempt to initiate massive Iraqi oil production in far excess of OPEC's quotas, to reduce global oil prices, and thereby dismantle OPEC's price controls. The end-goal of the neo-conservatives is incredibly bold yet simple in purpose, to use the 'war on terror' as the premise to finally dissolve OPEC's decision-making process, thus ultimately preventing the cartel's inevitable switch to pricing oil in euros.

If Iraq were reintegrated into the world economy, it could allow massive investment in its oil sector and boost daily output eventually to 7 billion barrels per day. This would not only lead to a collapse of OPEC but also to a collapse of the price of oil to the $10-15 range saving oil- consuming nations billions in crude oil costs.

The American people are largely oblivious to the economic risks regarding President Bush's upcoming war. Perhaps the biggest gamble in a protracted Iraq war may be Japan's weak economy. If the war creates prolonged high oil prices ($45 dollars per barrel over several months ) or a short but massive oil price spike ($80 to $100 per barrel), some analysts believe Japan's fragile economy would collapse. Japan is quite hypersensitive to oil prices, and if its banks default, the collapse of the world's second largest economy
would set in motion a sequence of events that would prove devastating to the U.S. economy. Indeed Japan's fall in an Iraq war could create the economic dislocations that begin in the Pacific rim but quickly spread to Europe and Russia. The Russian government lacks the controls to thwart a disorderly run on the dollar, and such an event could ultimately force an OPEC switch to euros.

Perhaps the Bush administration's ambitious goal of flooding the oil market with Iraqi crude may work but its hard to imagine that OPEC will submit to
self-inflicted hari-kari. OPEC could meet in Vienna and re-denominate the oil currency in the euro. Such a decision would mark the end of our
precarious economic superpower status.

One of the dirty little secrets of today's international order is that the rest of the globe could topple the United States from its hegemonic status
whenever they so choose with a concerted abandonment of the dollar standard. This is America's preeminent, inescapable Achilles heel for now and for the forseeable future.

(The following from an Asia Times article)
"World trade is now a game in which the US produces dollars and the rest of the world produces things that the dollar can buy. The world's interlinked
economies no longer trade to capture a comparative advantage; they compete in exports to capture needed dollars to service dollar-denominated foreign debts and to accumulate dollar reserves to sustain the exchange value of their domestic currencies. To prevent speculative and manipulative attacks
on their currencies, the world's central banks must acquire and hold dollar reserves in corresponding amounts to their currencies in circulation. The
higher the market pressure to devalue a particular currency, the more dollar reserves in its central bank must hold. This creates a built-in support for
a strong dollar that in turn forces the the world's central banks to acquire and hold more dollar reserves, making it stronger. This phenomenon is known
as dollar hegemony, which is created by the geopolitically constructed peculiarity that critical commodities, most notably oil, are denominated in
dollars. Everyone accepts dollars because dollars can buy oil. The recycling of petro-dollars is the price the US has extracted from oil-producing
countries for US tolerance of the oil-exporting cartel since 1973. "... The US capital-account surplus in turn finances the US trade deficit.
Moreover, any asset, regardless of location, that is denominated in dollars is a US asset in essence. When oil is denominated in dollars through US
state action and the dollar is a fiat currency, the US essentially owns the world's oil for free. And the more the US prints greenbacks, the higher the
price of US assets will rise. Thus a strong-dollar policy gives the US a double win." (Liu, Henry C K,"US Dollar hegemony has got to go,"Asia
Times,April 11,2002) <http://www.atimes.com/global-econ/DD11Dj01.html>

 Obviously, the Bush administration believes that it can rely on the
overwhelming military strength of the US to enable it to control the world's economy by controlling the oil. Can global hegemony compensate for foolhardy, unsustainable domestic economic policies? The U.S. national debt is over $6 trillion against a GDP of $9 trillion. This will undoubtably increase with proposed tax cuts and increased military spending. All efforts to shift energy policy toward renewables, efficiency, increased mileage standards, higher gas taxes, etc. have been blocked by the Bush administration and its fossil fuel industry supporters. Thus , the US remains vulnerable to energy supply and price shocks. Add to this historically high trade deficits, corporate accounting abuse, and a weak and overvalued stock market.

The 'America First' policies of the Bush administration, with its
unwillingness to honor international treaties, along with their aggressive
militarization of foreign policy has significantly damaged the US'
reputation abroad. 'Antiamericanism' is proliferating even amongst closest allies.

The introduction of the euro appears to be the primary threat to U.S.
economic hegemony. With ten additional countries approved for full E.U. membership, in 2004 the E.U. will have an aggregate GDP of $9.6 trillion and 450 million people directly competing with the U.S. economy of $10.5 trillion GDP and 280 million people.

There are monetary shifts in reserve funds of foreign governments away from the dollar with movements toward the euro.

The following quotes come from an article printed in late January 2003:

"Olag Vyugin, first deputy chairman at the Russian central bank, said the bank plans to cut the share of US dollars in its foreign exchange reserves and increase the share in other currencies..

"Analysts believe some of the large Asian cental banks --that between them hold the lion's share of the world's dollar reserves-- are also considering rejigging their Treasury holdings. A U.S.-led war in Iraq could further accelerate that trend.

Today if you have the U.S. acting (in Iraq) against world opinion. there
could be an even faster pullback out of dollar denomoinated assets,' said
Joseph Quinln, global economist with Johns Hopkins University in Washington. 'How we go to war influences the rate of decline of the dollar' he said.

UK Observer's Will Hutton wrote a forceful article against Bush'
unilateralism. He suggests that the potential geo-political fallout of a
unilateralist war in Iraq could create a devastating divestiture of U.S.
dollar denominated assets. "The multilateralism Bush scorns is, in truth, an economic necessity... "On latest estimates, its net liabilities to the rest
of the world are more than $2.7 trillion, nearly 30 percent of GDP, a scale of indebtedness associated with basket-case economies of Latin America.

"Its industrial base is so uncompetetive that it consistently imports more
than it exports; its current-account deficit, the gap between all its
current foreign earnings and foreign spending, is now a stunning 5 per cent of GDP, continuing a trend that has lasted for more than 25 years and which is the cause of all that foreign debt. As a national community, it has virtually ceased to save so that government and individuals alike live on credit.

To finance the current-account deficit, a reflection of the lack of saving,
the US relies on foreigners supplying it with the foreign currency it can't
earn itself...

"But if foreigners got windy about the prospects for share and property
prices and stopped buying, or began to withdraw some of the trillions they have invested in the US economy, then the dollar would collapse. Already it has fallen nearly ten per cent against the euro over the last six weeks, but that could be the beginning. Economists at the Federal Reserve have estimated that the dollar needs to fall by 30 per cent to bring the flow of imports and exports into balance, but in today's markets such a fall doesn't happen gradually. It happens precipitately.

"If America and Britain spurn a second UN Resolution and go to war with the active opposition of key members of the Security Council like France and Russia, be sure the flow of dollars into the US will slow down dramatically, and be sure there will be a stampede of foreigners trying to sell. Shares on Wall Street that Bush is so anxious to prop up are still massively overvalued. Against this background, there could be a devastatingf sell-off, with all the depressing knock-on consequences for the American consumer confidence and business investment."

The world community will not tolerate an imperialist U.S. Empire that uses its military power to conquer soveign nations who decide to sell their oil products in euros instead of dollars.

The American people are not aware of these issues because the U.S. mass media has been reduced to a handful of consumption/entertainment and profit-oriented conglomerates that filter the flow of information within the U.S.

"If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually
become to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the
State can sheild the people from the political, economic and/or military
consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to
use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy
of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the
State."---Joseph Goebbels, German Minister of Propaganda, 1933-1945

Pfeiffer, Dale Allen, "Much Ado about Nothing -- Whither the Caspian
Riches? Over the Last 24 Months Hoped For Caspian Oil Bonanza Has
Vanished With Each New Well Drilled -- Global Implications Are
Frightening," From The Wilderness (December 5, 2002)
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/120502_caspian.html

Ruppert, Michael, "The Unseen Conflict -- War Plans, Backroom Deals,
Leverage and Strategy -- Securing What's Left of the Planet's Oil Is
and Has Always Been the Bottom Line," From The Wilderness (October
18, 2002)
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/101802_the_unseen.html

Jean Charles-Briscard & Guillaume Dasquie, The Forbidden Truth: U.S.-
Taliban Secret Oil Diplomacy, Saudi Arabia and the Failed Search for
bin Laden, Nation Books, 2002.
Interview: Donahue With Jean-Charles Brisard:
http://www.truthout.org/docs_02/08.16B.donahue.brisard.htm
Paris Reporters Say Bush Threatened War Last Summer:
http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0201/ridgeway.php
Reviews of the book:
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/JFK/JohnJudge/911mar2002.html#0327a

 other references:

Ruppert, Michael, FTW Interview: "Colin Campbell on Oil -- Perhaps
the World's Foremost Expert on Oil and the Oil Business Confirms the
Ever More Apparent Reality of the Post-9-11 World," From The
Wilderness (October 23, 2002)
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/102302_campbell.html

Golf, Stan, "The Infinite War and its Roots," From The Wilderness
(August 27, 2002)
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/082702_infinite_war.html

Vidal, Gore, Dreaming War: Blood for Oil & the Cheney-Bush Junta,
Nation Books, 2002. His essay, "The Enemy Within" was first printed
in the UK Observer (Oct 27, 2002)
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/EnemyWithin.html

London, Heidi Kingstone, "Middle East: Trouble in the House of Saud,"
The Jerusalem Report (January 13, 2003) http://www.jrep.com/Mideast/Article-0.html

Recknagel, Charles, "Iraq: Baghdad Moves to Euro," Radio Free Europe
(November 1, 2000)
http://www.rferl.org/nca/features/2000/11/01112000160846.asp

Islam, Faisal, "Iraq nets handsome profit by dumping dollar for
euro," The Observer (February 16, 2003)
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/Print/0,3858,4606565,00.html

"Economics Drive Iran Euro Oil Plan, Politics Also Key," IranExpert
(August 23, 2002)
http://www.iranexpert.com/2002/economicsdriveiraneurooil23august.htm

"Forex Fund Shifting to Euro," Iran Financial News, (August 25, 2002)
http://www.payvand.com/news/02/aug/1080.html

Gutman, Roy & Barry, John, "Beyond Baghdad: Expanding Target List:
Washington looks at overhauling the Islamic and Arab world," Newsweek
(August 11, 2002)
http://www.unansweredquestions.net/timeline/2002/newsweek081102.html

Costello, Tom, "Japan's Economy at Risk of Collapse," MSNBC News
(December 11, 2002)
http://www.msnbc.com/news/845708.asp

 

Ahmed, Nafeez, The War on Freedom: How and Why America was Attacked, September 11, 2001, Tree of Life Publications, 2002.
Complete 400-page PDF copy of book:
http://globalfreepress.com/books/warfre-book.pdf
www.thewaronfreedom.com
Yahoo! Groups: WarOnFreedom:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/WarOnFreedom/
Book Review by Wanda Ballantine:
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/WoFreview.html

Associated Press, "US Dollar on Shaky Ground," nzoom.com (January 24,2003)
http://onebusiness.nzoom.com/cda/printable/1,1856,163754,00.html

McCarthy, Grainne "Dollar's Decline Starting To Accelerate, Rattling
Nerves," Dow Jones, (January 25, 2003)
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/linkscopy/dollarDec.html

Hutton, Will, "Why Bush is sunk without Europe - Even while George
Bush growls out his bellicose message, his country has never been in
such an enfeebled state," The Observer, (January 26, 2003)
http://www.observer.co.uk/Print/0,3858,4591686,00.html

Nunan, Coílín, "Oil, Currency, and the War on Iraq," (January 2003)
http://www.feasta.org/documents/papers/oil1.htm
http://www.feasta.org/documents/papers/oil1.pdf

Additional Recommended Reading:
`Behind the Iraq Invasion,' Aspects of India's Economy, Nos. 33 & 34 (December 2002)
http://www.rupe-india.org/34/behind.html

Makhijani, Arjun, `Saddam's Last Laugh: The Dollar Could be Headed
for Hard Times if OPEC Switches to the Euro.' TomPaine.com (May 9,
2001)
http://www.tompaine.com/feature.cfm?ID=4110%20

even more references: Gluck, Caroline, "North Korea embraces the euro," BBC News (December, 2002) http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/2531833.stm

"What the World Thinks in 2002 -- How Global Publics View: Their Lives, Their Countries, The World, America," The Pew Research Center
For The People & The Press (December 4, 2002) http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=165

"Euro continues to extend its global influence" (January 7, 2002) http://www.europartnership.com/news/02jan07.htm
10a. Garnaut, John, "US Dollar Losing Its Position As Asia's Reserve Currency," rense.com (July 17, 2002)
http://www.rense.com/general27/rec.htm 10b. Palmer, Randall, "Canada sells gold, keeps shift into euro
reserves," Reuters / Forbes (January 6, 2003) http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2003/01/06/rtr838251.html

Henderson, Hazel, "Beyond Bush's Unilateralism: Another Bi-Polar World or A New Era of Win-Win?" InterPress Service (June 2002)
http://www.hazelhenderson.com/Bush's%20unilateralism.htm

Birms, Larry & Volberding, Alex, "U.S. is the Primary Loser in Failed Venezuelan Coup," Newsday (April 21, 2002)
http://www.coha.org/COHA%20_in%20_the_news/Articles% 202002/newsday_04_21_02_us__venezuela.htm

"USA intelligence agencies revealed in plot to oust Venezuela's President," (Dec 12, 2002) http://www.vheadline.com/0212/14248.asp (link now dead) -- see http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/linkscopy/USintelVen.html

Liu, Henry C K, "US dollar hegemony has got to go," Asia Times (April 11, 2002) http://www.atimes.com/global-econ/DD11Dj01.html

"The Choice of Currency for the Denomination of the Oil Bill," Speech given by Javad Yarjani, Head of OPEC's Petroleum Market Analysis
Dept, on The International Role of the Euro (Invited by the Spanish Minister of Economic Affairs during Spain's Presidency of the EU)
(April 14, 2002, Oviedo, Spain) http://www.opec.org/NewsInfo/Speeches/sp2002/spAraqueSpainApr14.htm

Nayyer, Dr. Ali, "Iraq and Oil," PakistanLink (December 13, 2002) http://www.pakistanlink.com/nayyer/12132002.html

Understanding the politics of oil:

The White House says that oil has nothing to do with their desire to go to war and overthrow Saddam Hussein. I have tried to compile some evidence that people can use to that clearly indicates that oil has a central role in
explaining the actions of the Bush adminiswtration, allies like France and Russia, the Iraqi opposition, and even Saddam Hussein. --John

Is it Oil or WMD?

I. Does the US face an oil crisis?

The document "Strategic Energy Policies For the 21st Century" presented to VP Cheney in April 2001 says the central dilemma for the US administration is that 'the American people continue to demand plentiful and cheap energy without sacrifice or inconvenience'. It targets Saddam Hussein as a threat to American interests because of his control of Iraqi oil fields and recommends the use of military intervention as a means to fix the US energy crises. Neil Mackay,Sunday Herald (Scotland), October 7, 2002.
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines02/1006-03.htm
http://www.rice.edu/projects/baker/

When will the world run out of oil? That's the wrong question, according to experts who say it's much more important to ask when global oil production will reach its peak and begin to decline. Oil production tends to accelerate, experts say, until about half of the oil is drained from oil
fields; from that point forward, oil is produced more slowly and more
expensively. The point at which production stops accelerating and starts to slow down is known as the production peak.

Individual oil fields have a production peak, and any group of oil fields
has a production peak. The concept applies to individual countries' oil
fields, and to the sum of all fields worldwide.

No one disputes there will be serious repercussions when global oil
production peaks and begins to decline. The timing of the peak depends on an estimate of the world's total endowment of oil, though there is some dispute over that amount. The peak will come when half the world's EUR (Estimated Ultimately Recoverable) oil is used up. The EUR includes all the oil that has been and will be used by humans in the future.

Most expert analysis have put the EUR at between 1800 and 2200 billion
barrels of oil. The average EUR of 75 estimates by oil companies ,
consultants, academics, government agencies and other institutions during
the past 50 years is 1930 billion barrels. By comparison historic world oil
consumption stood at about 940 billion gallons at the end of 2002. The world is now consuming oil at the rate of more than 27 billion barrels per year.

One of the exceptions to these estimates is the U.S. Geological Survey
(USGS) which exceeds 3000 billion barrels. Experts have roundly criticized the latest USGS number, calling it politically motivated and based on questionable assumptions.

"The United States seeks to exagerate the world's oil to reduce OPEC's
confidence" writes Colin J. Campbell, an outspoken critic of the USGS whose own analysis puts the EUR at 1950 billion barrels. "The [United States] pretends that it does not depend on Middle East oil. It puts out very flawed studies by the USGS and the Department of Energy. OPEC, for its part, exaggerates its resource base to inhibit non-OPEC investments and moves to energy savings or renewables.... Companies conceal depletion because it sits badly on the investment community."

World production will peak sometime from 2003 to 2017 with most experts predicting that it will peak this decade. When production peaks the world will face serious social and economic consequences.

An AP report of January 8, 2003 staes: OPEC officials have said the group
cannot pump enough additional crude to make up for a simiultaneous loss of exports from Venezuela and Iraq, which together have historically exported about 4 million barrels a day. OPEC's remaining members have a spare production capacity of 3.3 million barrels a day, according to the
Paris-based International Energy Agency, the West's leading watchdog.

This would seem to be a good indication that we are nearing the world oil
peak. Also, crude oil stocks in the US were down to their lowest point since1973 according to the department of energy. The Gaurdian, January 16, 2003.

The only significant oil fields now in production that have not passed their
peak are those in the OPEC countries. Iraq has oil reserves of 112.5 billion
barrels which is second only to Saudia Arabia's 262 billion barrels. Iraq
has oil fields that have not been developed yet and the Energy Information
Administration of the US Department of Energy estimates that additional
"probable and possible" resources could amount to 220 billion barrels.Environmental Media Services, January,6,2003
http://www.ems.org/oil_depletion/story.html

II. Is Saudi Arabia a problem for the US?

The US is so dependent on Saudi oil that it ignored Saudi funding of the
Taliban, which continued until mid-2000, admits the New York Times. And oil means the US now ignores Saudi Arabia's refusal to cooperate with the investigation of the September 11th attack, its unwillingness to help in the war against Afghanistan and its brewing domestic troubles. The High Hidden Cost of Saudi Arabian Oil, New York Times , Neela Banerjee, Sunday, October 21, 2001.

Some analysts, such as Fadhil Chalabi, a former Iraqi oil official, assert
that Iraq could produce 8-10 million b/d within a decade and eventually
perhaps as much as 12 million. The impact on world markets is hard to
overstate. Saudi Arabia would no longer be the dominant producer, able to
influence oil markets single-handedly. Given that US-Saudi relations cooled substantially in the wake of September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks-rifts that may widen further-a Saudi competitor would not be unwelcome in Washington. An unnamed U.S. diplomat confided to Scotland's Sunday Herald that "a rehabilitated Iraq is the only sound long-term strategic alternative to Saudi Arabia. It's not just a case of swapping horses in mid-stream, the impending U.S. regime change is a strategic necessity." Foreign Policy in Focus Policy Report, January, 2003, Post-Saddam Iraq: Linchpin of a New World Order, http://www.fpif.org

III. Is Iraq oil crucial for US and UK oil companies?

US and UK companies long held a three-quarter share in Iraq's oil
production, but they lost their position with the 1972 nationalization of
the Iraq Petroleum Company. After the nationalization, Iraq turned to French companies and the Russian (Soviet) government for funds and partnerships. Today US and UK companies are very keen to regain their former position, which they see as critical to their furure role in the world oil industry. "Iraq possesses huge reserves of oil and gas- reserves I'd love Chevron to have access to" enthused Chevron CEO Kenneth T. Derr in a 1998 speech at the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco, in which he pronounced his strong support for the seanctions. text of speech: http://www.chevrontexaco.com/news/archive/chevron_speech
Sanctions have kept the rivals at bay, a clear advantage. US-UK companies
hope that the regime will eventually collapse, giving them a strong edge
over their competitors with a post-Saddam government. Direct military
intervention by the US-UK offers a tempting but dangerous gamble that might put Exxon, Shell, BP and Chevron in immediate control of ther Iraqi oil boom, but at the risk of backlash from a regional political explosion.
Iraq:the Struggle for Oil, James Paul, Executive Director, Global Policy
Forum, August, 2002. http://www.globalpolicy.org

The dominant private companies (ExxonMobil and Chevron-Texaco of the US, Royal Dutch-Shell and BP of Britain and the Netherlands, TotalFinaElf of France), sell close to 29 million barrels per day in gasoline and other oil products. But production from fields owned by these "super-majors" came to 10.1 million b/d in 2001, or just 35% of their total sales volume. Calculated from OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2001(Vienna:2002) Table 77. Although these oil corporations have poured many billions of dollars into discovering new fields outside the Middle East, their proven reserves stood at just 44 billion barrels in 2001, 4% of the worlds total and sufficient to keep producing oil for only another 12 years at current rates. Thus the oil-rich Middle East, and particularly Iraq, remains key to the future of the oil
industry. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information
Administration (EIA), Iraq Country Analysis Brief, October,2002.
www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/iraq.htmlI

A. Iraq's oil is so coveted by the big companies because of three factors:

1) Iraq's oil is generally of high quality because it has a low sulfer and
high carbon content making it especially suitable for refining and therefore
it commands a premium on the world market.

2) Iraq's oil is plentiful.

The proven reserves of 112.5 billion barrels is 11% of the world total but
Iraq's true potential may be far greater than this, however, as the country
is relatively unexplored due to years of war and sanctions. As world demand for oil increases and as oil reserves in other areas decline
at a fast rate, oil in Iraq will represent a steadily-larger portion of the world's total. If Iraq's fields meet high-end estimates in the 3-400 billion
barrel range, Iraq's reserves could reach over 30% of total reserves by
mid-century or even before.

3) Exceptionally low production costs yield a high per barrel profit.

According to Oil and Gas Journal, Western oil companies estimate they
can produce a barrel of Iraqi oil for less than $1.50 and possibly as little
as $1, including all exploration, oilfield development and production costs
and including a 15% return. By way of comparison, a barrel of oil costs $5
to produce in Malaysia, $6-8 in Mexico and Russia and $12-16 in offshore
areas like the North Sea.

B. Estimating Profits in Iraq.

Using an average price of $25 per barrel and assuming a level of Iraqi
reserves at 250 billion barrels, recoverable Iraqi oil would be worth $3.125 trillon. Subtracting $1.50 per barrel production costs totaling $188 billion and assuming a 50/50 split with the government and assuming a production period of 50 years, the company profits would run to $29 billion per year. That sum is two-thirds of the $44 billion total profits earned by the five major oil companies combined in 2001. A nationalist government in Baghdad that would demand a higher percentage split would reduce the profit potential, as would the development of major alternative energy sources and taxes on carbon-based fuels in response to global warming. Whatever the exact results, and assuming a U.S-friendly government, it is clear that Iraq is a goldmine that is literally "worth fighting for" in the view of the big companies.

C. Effects of U.S.-dominated Iraq on Other Oil Producer Governments

A U.S. government in Baghdad - or a U.S. military occupation government- would doubtless hand out upstream production concessions to U.S.-UK companies that would set an important precedent in he world oil industry, tipping the balance of power in favor of the companies and away from the
producer states. In this way, the war against Iraq would have an effect on the oil industry that would go far beyond the borders of Iraq.

Even before Iraq had reached its full production of 8 million barrels or
more per day, the companies would gain huge leverage over the international oil system. OPEC would be weakened by the withdrawal of one of its key producers from the OPEC quota system. Indeed , OPEC might face the paradox that a U.S. military government of occupation in Iraq would be an OPEC member! Alternatively, such a government might pull out of the producers' cartel.

The US-UK companies strongly favored the sanctions, as a means to hold their competitors at bay (and hold down excess production on the world market), but weakening sanctions in the late 1990s threatened their future prosperity. The companies are nervous but enthusiastic about Washington's war option, for it seems to be the only means left to oust their rivals and establish a dominant presence in the fabulously profitable future of Iraq oil production.

Business news agency Reuters, in a story datelined December 15, 2002, put the matter bluntly when it wrote "Iraq's crude reserves, the world's second largest after Saudi Arabia, are at the center of a tug-of-war between countries hoping to grab a share of Baghdad's oil wealth once the United Nations sanctions are lifted."

Because of the enormous value of oil concessions and the high "rent" that results from low-cost fields, oil concessions are rarely allocated on a purely "market" basis. The companies typically win the most lucrative concessions through their host governments' political and military power.

The US-UK would find it very politically difficult to create an indigenous post-Saddam government that would agree to a sweetheart deal for the US-UK companies. For this reason, the US-UK have announced that they are planning a military government that will "purge" Iraqi politics of its Baathist and nationalist elements and remain in power more than a year or as long as necessry. Though the US-UK official pronouncements speak about "human rights" and "democracy" it would appear that the main goal of the war and
"regime change" is to carry out the oil deals and re-fashion Iraqi politics on a new and more conciliatory and pro-US basis. Scenarios circulating in Washington talk about rapid military seizure of the oil fields rebuilding oil infrastructure and protecting the oil production system from the negative effects of local politics. Oil in Iraq: the heart of the Crises, James A. Paul, Global Policy Forum,
December, 2002. http:/www.globalpolicy.org/security/oil/2002/

None of this suggests a conspiracy or a coincidence. This is how capitalism works. The government sees its primary role to defend and extend American corporate interests. "For globalism to work, America can't be afraid to act like the almighty superpower that it is....The hidden hand of the market will never work without a hidden fist -- McDonald's cannot flourish without McDonnell Douglas, the designer of the F-15. And the hidden fist that keeps the world safe for Silicon Valley's technologies is called the United States Army, Air
Force, Navy and Marine Corps." -- "What the World Needs Now", by Thomas Friedman, New York Times, March 28,1999." -- from Backing Up Globalization with Military Might

IV. Is Iraqi oil crucial for US' s geopolitical strategy?

In testimony to Congress in 1999, General Anthony C. Zinni, Commander in chief of the US central Command, testified that the Gulf Region, with its huge oil reserves, is a "vital interest" of "long standing" for the United States and that the US "must have free access to the region's resources." Testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee, April 13, 1999.
"Free access", it seems, means both military and economic control of these resources. This has been a major goal of US strategic doctrine ever since the end of World War II. Prior to 1971, Britain (the former colonial power) policed the region and its oil riches. Since then, the United States has deployed ever-larger military forces to assure "free access" through overwheling armed might. see Michael T. Klare, Resource Wars: the new landscape of global conflict (New York, 2001) esp ch. 3, "Oil Conflict in the Persian Gulf."

U.S. oil consumption is expected to increase by one-third over the next two decades. The administration's National Energy Policy Development Group, led by Vice President Cheney, acknowledged in a May 2001 report that U.S. oil production will fall 12% over the next twenty years. As a result, U.S. dependence on imported oil-which has risen from one-third in 1985 to more than half today- is set to climb to two-thirds by 2020. The Cheney report confirms that "by any estimation, Middle East oil producers will remain central to world oil security." The report projects that Persian Gulf producers alone will supply 54-67% of world oil exports in 2020. National Energy Policy Development Group (Washington: U.S. Government Printing
Office, May, 2001, p. 8-4)

Bush administration officials have denied that oil is one of the reasons
they are pushing for overthrowing the Iraqi government but oil officials
interviewed on 60 Minutes on December 15 painted a different picture. Asked if oil is part of the equation, Phillip Ellis, head of global oil and gas operations for Boston Consulting replied, "Of course it is. No doubt."

The pursuit and protection of Middle Eastern oil has, of course, always been a significant factor in U.S. security policy. In 1980, then President Jimmy Carter made explicit what had long been stated informally: that any hostile effort to impede the flow of Persian Gulf oil would be regarded as an "assault on the vital interests of the United States," and, as such, would be "repelled by any means necessary, including military force." This principle, dubbed the Carter Doctrine, was later given as the reason for American intervention in the 1991 Gulf conflict and for the subsequent buildup of U.S. forces in the region.

The "National Security Strategy of the United States of America" published on September 17, 2002 asserts the US government's intention to preserve America's supremecy as the paramount world power. By 2020, the United States will import 65% of its energy resources. This dependancy is the Achilles heel for American power. Unless Persian Gulf oil can be kept under American control, our ability to remain the dominant world power would be put into
question. Washington's Oilpolitik, Michael T. Klare, October 3,2002.
http:/greatchange.org/ov-klare,oilpolitik.html

The military-diplomatic web site Stratfor.com recently published a blunt assesment of the real American interests at stake in a new Persian Gulf war. Stratfor.com has close ties to forces within the Bush administration and generally articulates its strategic outlook. The internet site cited three overriding goals: seizing control of Iraqi oil, transforming Iraq into a base for further American military operations in the Middle East and Central Asia, and carrying out a bloodbath that traumatizes the Arab population and cements American-Israeli domination of the region. On eve of US war against Iraq: the political challenge of 2003, January,6, 2003. http://ww.wsws.org/articles/2003/jan2003

"Oil is much too important to be left in the hands of the Arabs" Henry
Kissinger, The Hostage Nation, Hans Von Sponek and Denis Halliday, The Guardian, November 29, 2001

 

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Reflection by Phil Steger (below)

Back from Baghdad by John Maus

This was my first trip to Iraq and although I had seen many videos, read books and heard accounts from people who had visited Iraq, I was not prepared for seeing the desperate poverty and humiliation that sanctions have imposed on the majority of the Iraqi people. I had to confront the reality that the women and children reduced to begging in the streets and the children dying in hospitals and the deplorable living conditions were all because of twelve years of the most pervasive sanctions ever placed on a country in this century.

On our first day in Baghdad we visited the Amariyah bomb shelter where over 400 innocent civilians, mostly women and children, had been incinerated by two US bombs on February 13th, 1991. This was like visiting a giant tomb. The impressions of the charred bodies on the walls made an indelible impression on my memory. I heard the story of the Iraqi children who had visited the shelter. When asked for her reaction one girl said that she hoped their military would stay strong to make sure that no one could ever do this to them again. I couldn't help but think of the similar reaction that the people in this country had after 9/11. It seemed to me that , just like that Iraqi girl, many people including the congress and the media were acting out of fear rather than reason. I think that is extremely important for us Americans to recognize when our leaders are using fear to manipulate us. Almost every day we hear a reference to Saddam Hussein"s efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction even though no one has any evidence of this kind and Scott Ritter, who led the UNSCOM weapon's inspection team in Iraq says that it is highly unlikely that Iraq presents any threat to the US.

However, we did find one weapon of mass destruction that has already been responsible for the death of many thousands of Iraqis, mostly children and the elderly and we managed to bring a sample back with us. This is a bottle of a biological weapon of mass destruction. It is dirty water. Phil got it from the tap at the Al Amara hospital. Documents of the Defense Intelligence Agency prove that, contrary to the Geneva Convention, the US government intentionally used sanctions against Iraq to degrade the country's water supply after the Gulf War. The US government knew the cost that civilian Iraqis, mostly children, would pay, and it went ahead anyway. The complete story by Thomas Nagy was published in the September 2001 Progressive and the documents themselves can be found on the internet. There are those who argue that as long as Saddam Hussein is in power there must be a policy of containment which includes some form of so called "smart sanctions". We witnessed firsthand the the fundamental problems of sanctions of any kind. I heard the same message at all three UN agencies that we visited, the UNDP,UNICEF and UNOHCI. The people of Iraq have become almost completely dependent on the food rations they receive through the Oil for Food program. Under the Oil for Food program the money from oil sales is deposited in a UN escrow account and used to pay for contracts for food and other humanitarian supplies. Contracts must be approved by a 15 member committee. The government of Iraq is then responsible for distribution which was described as "flawless" by the UNICEF director. I heard that Iraq had a bumper wheat crop of 1.5 million bushels. Unfortunately no locally produced goods are allowed under the OFF program. As a result of this program the economy remains collapsed and cut off from the world. The Iraqi Dinar has been devalued by 600,000 percent. It is as though the entire country is a giant refugee camp.

The Oil for Food program dwarfs any other UN program and it is the only so called "humanitarian program" that is paid for entirely by the country it is supposed to benefit. The food distribution entails some 410,000 metric tons per month. This is about 100 times the amount of the entire World Food Program. Carel de Rooy, UNICEF Iraq Country Director has recently warned of the "nightmare scenario" that could emerge if the monthly food basket that is distributed to all Iraqi families is interrupted. Without rapid intervention, chaos, malnutrition and even famine could result.

Wherever we visited I could see the results of this program. At the hospitals I saw children suffering from treatable diseases caused by bad water because there is a lack of funds to rebuild the water system. Infant mortality today is 107 per thousand live births as compared to 47 at the end of the eighties. Under five mortality is 131 per thousand, compared to 56 a decade ago. This translates into about five thousand children a month who die because of the sanctions. A hospital director said that before theGulf War the mortality rate for childhood leukemias was 20%. Now it is 90 to 95% because of lack of medicines and hospital equipment. One angry mother said "what crime have these children done to deserve this punishment?"

The almost total lack of investment and a real money economy has resulted in an unemployment rate that hovers around 60%. A school teacher's salary has fallen to about $5 a month. Children have resorted to begging or selling small items on the street to help support their families. We met Paiman, a smiling thirteen year old girl selling chiclets. Ramzi, one of our tour leaders, told us that she was the only support for her family and that she had been jailed three times for begging. The educational system has deteriorated to the point where many families are unwilling to send their children to schools that are unfit for education. There is a reported attitude that people no longer view education as useful or necessary , given the number of highly qualified graduates driving taxis or working odd jobs. Sytar, the wonderful man who drove for us, was an engineer.

Despite all the hardships, the Iraqi people welcomed us with their generous hospitality wherever we went. They would always insist on fixing tea for us which they shared from their rations. Would Americans be as hospitable if the situation were reversed?

According to UNICEF's 2002 report the sanctions are not only ineffective, they violate the rights of children. "The past decade has witnessed the emergence of a large body of wasted, stunted and impoverished children in violation of the right to life and survival."

I would suggest that instead of the kind of "regime change" that the administration proposes we need to change from a "sanctions regime" to a "reinvestment and rebuilding regime." Iraq needs massive investment to rebuild its industry, its power grids and its schools and it needs cash in hand to pay for its engineers, doctors and teachers. The people of Iraq need to be empowered in order to successfully initiate any change in their government. Our country was founded on "self determination". We owe Iraqis the same opportunity for "self determination".

I would like to comment on the threat of Saddam Hussein and WMD. I believe that Saddam is a brutal dictator and I believe the people of Iraq and the world would be better off without him. At the same time I do not intend to demonize the US, but only speak the truth as I see it. The question should be asked: Why is Saddam such a threat today but not last year or in 1990?

Despite reports that Iraq was using Chemical weapons against Iran, the Reagan administration aggressively pursued expanded arms sales to Iraq, whilst at the same time covertly supplying arms to Iraq's adversary,Iran, in what was later exposed as the "Iran-Contra Scandal". After Iraq launched a chemical attack against the Kurdish town of Halabja, killing over 4,000 residents, the US Senate voted to cut off all financial assistance toIraq. But officials lobbying for the Reagan administration killed the bill in the house and US arms sales to Iraq continued right down to the invasion of Kuwait. The Bush administration approved $4.8 million worth of advanced technology products between July 18 and August 1, 1991. Iraq did not use chemical or biological weapons during the Gulf conflict but a 1994 Senate subcommittee hearing revealed that US based corporations had been key suppliers of the toxins and spores Iraq had used to build up its chemical and biological arsenal. By 1998, after the most comprehensive weapons inspection program in modern history, UNSCOM arms inspectors reported that Iraq was "qualitatively disarmed". Iraq was demanding that sanctions be lifted and most of the governments in the UN favored lifting sanctions. On December 12, 1998 Clinton withdrew the weapons inspectors on the pretext that Iraq was not "fully cooperating". Clinton then argued that the US had no choice but to bomb Iraq because it was blocking meaningful inspections.

In fact, the United Nations Special Commission-UNSCOM- cited only five "obstructions" to the 423 inspections conducted between Nov 18-Dec 12, 1998. One was a 45 minute delay before allowing access . Another was Iraq's rebuff to a demand by a US inspector that she be able to interview all the undergraduate students in Baghdad University Science Department. Two other cases had to do a request to inspect establishments on Friday which is the Muslim holy day. Since the establishments were closed Iraq asserted that the inspections must be held another day or that an Iraqi official would accompany the inspectors-in accordance with an agreement between UNSCOM regarding Friday inspections.

Beween Dec16-19, 1998, US and British warplanes dropped more than 1,000 missles and and bombs on Iraq. Two weeks later officials publicly admitted that the weapons inspectors were intelligence agents who provided Pentagon bombing planners with bombing coordinates. (New York Times, Jan. 7,1999)

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Reflection: the moral debate over war by Phil Steger

There is a debate over whether to go to war on Iraq. It is a debate that is starting to bring out the brilliant, tactical thinking, and shrewd, political thinking of some of the best, most powerful minds in the U.S. and the world. But none of this thinking demands as much from the heart and mind, or tests the will as much as the moral thinking that is being done, and that needs to be done, around this monumental and seemingly immovable problem; a problem that ties together war, famine, sanctions, starvation, repression, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, civil war and the potential for a clash of civilizations that could spill over every border into a knot with no discernible ends.

The stakes are extraordinarily high. Iraq, a country singularly rich in resources, history and culture, is also a tortured and violent state that has oscillated between bloody repression and bloody revolution since its was cookie-cuttered into a nation by the British after World War I. The one ruler who rose to bring stability to the internal struggles of this artificially and externally manufactured nation and to bring an impressive and even enviable standard of living to most of those within the country, did so through jaw-dropping violence, cruelty and cold, calculated murder; and he did so while seeking weapons of mass destruction in order to back his foreign policy with the same, cold threat of annihilation that backs his domestic policy.

At the time this ruler was in ascendancy, after he assassinated his own predecessors and oversaw the executions of thousands and thousands of potential rivals, he found himself courted by every Western industrial democracy in the world, the strongest and coziest of which was the United States. Every arms exporter, oil importer in the world wooed him, going nearly so far as to carry his books home from school. Russia, China, England, France, Germany and the United States helped this man knit together dreadful delivery systems of mass death ­ chemical, biological and nuclear. The beacon of freedom and democracy shone that light in the eyes of its own citizens to blind them to their new ally's use of some of these upon children, women and men in Iran, and civilians in his own country. It fed arms and weaponry to both sides in a war that lasted nearly ten years and consumed more than 900,000 lives, carefully weighing its aid so as not to give one side too much and so draw this apocalyptic war to too-soon an end.

Jubilant after having won this war, largely as a result of his willingness to use mustard gas against just about anybody, and feeling he had the whole world on his side, or at least the most powerful nation in the world, the Iraqi ruler indicated that he was going to give freer reign to his ambitions and told the US ambassador to his country that he was going to invade the Kingdom of Kuwait. The ambassador said, essentially, "Who cares? That's your business." He stroked his mustache and proceeded with his plans.

Then all hell broke loose for him and for the 23 million people in his country whose political freedoms under a ruler with such power were reduced to, "Be quiet and obey, or die." In 100 days, the United States led a coalition force that demolished from the air practically every electrical station, sewage treatment and water purification center in the country, and just about every neighborhood they stood in or near. They obliterated the Iraqi army in battles US pilots likened to, "shooting fish in a barrel". They used 390 tons of weapons made from radioactive, nuclear waste that disintegrated tanks and bodies and spread tons of radioactive particles over the entire southern part of the country, particles that entered the blood, bones and placenta of those that survived the bombardment. And meanwhile, all imports of equipments, medicines and foods were shut off; the oil that provided the revenue for paying the technicians, doctors and engineers, that paid for the ball bearings, gears and pumps that cleaned the water, removed the sewage, cooled the home, ran the respirators was plugged up and made to sit in the ground.

And the children died. A medical research team from Harvard University published a report in the New England Journal of Medicine that presented sound reasons to believe that in the six months after Operation: Desert Storm, over 46,000 children under the age of five died from dehydration and diarrhea as a direct result of the loss of drinkable water that the airstrikes caused. Follow-up investigations by the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization in 1994 and 1995, and by UNICEF in 1997, supported not only these claims, but provided additional evidence that the causes of those deaths continued unameliorated, knocking down as many as 5000 children every month, before, or just after, they had learned to walk.

And while the country's children, its economy, its culture, its development were bled to death bit by bit, the people of power sat by in Washington and Baghdad with eyes narrowed and jaws clenched to the death of so many kids, each absolutely entrenched in the conviction ­ cynical or naïve ­ that they were not responsible for these deaths, their enemy was. And so it has continued to this very moment.

For the US, the debate has always been about weapons of mass destruction. Saddam has had them. He has used them. He may have them still. He is trying to get more of them. He will use them against the US, our allies or our interests, if he gets them. Or, at least, his very possession of them will give him a power in the region that the free world cannot afford him to have. This has been the US's issue since the end of the Gulf War. It has been the Security Council's issue, as well. To cut into this progression and to prevent it, the Security Council, hard driven by the US, has used the combination of sanctions with weapons inspections. Resolution 687 called for the imposition of sanctions until the total elimination of all Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and weapons of mass destruction programs was witnessed and attested to by the UN Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM).

Weapons inspections were intended to open up the dark, dirty basements in which the Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and its programs were being hidden and developed. Sanctions, it was believed, would inhibit, though not prevent, the Iraqi government from developing its programs further, while, ostensibly, putting pressure upon the Iraqi populace to overthrow their ruler. Inspections, though they were never totally complete, kept the Iraqi regime in a frantic game of moving and hiding the most valuable and secret of what remained of what they had, and kept them from developing anything further. Sanctions, on the other hand, applied so much pressure on the Iraqi people that they simply gave under the weight, the middle-class disappearing into poverty, and the poor simply being crushed.

Perhaps those who designed this policy thought that it actually might work. They had the formal agreement of cooperation from the Iraqi ruler, who, sensing his own destruction in the hairs on the back of his neck, both from the Allied forces and the widespread violent uprising sending up plumes of smoke from the South and North, seemed willing to sign away his own soul in order to get his gunships and Republican Guards back, along with a guarantee that he'd be left in power.

Not surprisingly, however, the Iraqi ruler sought to confound the weapons inspections process the moment they were begun. The Iraqi government lied about and hid the bulk of its weapons and programs from the inspectors. Only intelligence, determination and technical expertise on the part of the inspectors and its director, Rolf Ekeus, moved the process of Iraqi disarmament forward. Additionally, the ruler rebuffed continued efforts on the part of the UN to offer humanitarian assistance to Iraqi citizens suffering under the sanctions. The principles they cited as justification for their refusal were sound, in principle:
1) The damage done by sanctions can only be undone by full redevelopment. Humanitarian assistance can only put a band-aid on a body that needs both extensive surgery and rehabilitation.
2) To accept the kind of humanitarian assistance needed to simply stabilize the destruction of life under sanctions would require involving the UN intimately, and unduly, in the day-to-day affairs of a sovereign nation.
The US refused to consider the lifting of sanctions in exchange even for full Iraqi cooperation with weapons inspections on the grounds that a legitimate ruler, if faced by a superior force that threatens to destroy all of the children of that ruler's country if he doesn't step aside, or sacrifice sovereignty, would abdicate rather than cause those deaths. In a rarefied, abstract, and self-referencing loop of logic, both the Iraqi and the US governments' reasoning make sense. When 5000 real children really die every month, the logic of both sides is revealed simply as a grotesque game of chicken with children's lives. How many can die in front of your very eyes until you blink?

The weapons inspections component of all of this concluded in 1998 after the Iraqi government offered convincing evidence that US members of UNSCOM were delivering intelligence that they were privileged to gather under the Security Council resolution only insofar as it pertained to disarmament and that they were only to deliver to the UNSCOM itself, to the governments of Israel and the United States. The US said this was simply an effort of the Iraqi government to evade its responsibilities by muddling up its clear obligation to submit to unfettered inspections, and pressured the Security Council to withdraw its inspectors. Citing Iraqi recalcitrance, US President Clinton ordered the 1998 Operation: Desert Fox bombing that made no impact on Iraq's weapons programs, but only succeeded in doing some superficial structural damage, while killing scores of innocent civilians and ensuring that the Iraqi Government would reject any further demands to admit inspectors. One high-level inspector has even claimed that the Clinton Administration pressured the new UNSCOM director Richard Butler into ordering a confrontation with the Iraqi government in order to open the way for the Desert Fox bombing. After the bombing, the US government admitted to receiving intelligence from American weapons inspectors in violation of the Security Council inspections mandate.

And so here we are.

ACTION    Letters to Congress on Middle East Peace Talking points at www.cmep.org You can reach your representative via the Capitol Switchboard, 202/224-3121 or online at www.house.gov/house/Member. You can find H.Con.Res.253 and list of cosponsors at the Library of Congress' Web site http://thomas.loc.gov/